מארק האפלה
USB
03/09/2020
מארק האפלה, מנהל השקעות ראשי, UBS Global Wealth Management: "אף על פי שהמניות מתקרבות לשיאים חדשים, אנו ממליצים להישאר מושקעים ובו זמנית לייצר מתווים אסטרטגיים להפעלת הון חדש. אלמנט הזמן בשוק הינו חשוב להשגת יעדיו הכספיים של המשקיע".
האם העסקים משגשגים?
פול דונובן, כלכלן גלובאלי ראשי, UBS Global Wealth Management: " "חברות סטארטאפ עסקיות צמחו בכמה סוגי כלכלות. נראה כי דבר זה מעיד על ביטחון רב יותר בעתיד מזה שנתוני הסנטימנט הציעו."
Is business booming?
Financial markets often underestimate human resilience. People adapt in a crisis. One example is the fact that business creation is booming in many countries as lockdowns end. Business creation cannot be compared from country to country. Definitions of a new business are not the same.
But business creation data is not a survey. People legally registered their business, and generally pay to do so.
Business creation numbers have a degree of quality that survey evidence does not.
More than a bounce back
Business creation fell dramatically during lockdown. The UK, which has weekly data, shows the collapse in business creation the week lockdown started. US weekly data shows a rapid drop in business creation as the first states contemplated lockdowns. This was effectively a supply and demand problem. As government offices closed it became more difficult to register a business. As fear of the virus grew, uncertainty about the economic outlook reduced people's willingness to take the risk of starting a new business.
As lockdowns have eased, there business formation has boomed. This is more than offsetting the weak business creation in lockdown periods. US business applications for 2020 to date are up almost 14% compared to the same period in 2019. UK business applications are noticeably higher than normal. France and Singapore have also seen post-lockdown surges in business creation. The numbers of Japan's sole-proprietor businesses have risen quickly as restrictions have eased.
How to invest at all-time highs
Thought of the day
August was a strong month for stocks. The S&P 500 returned 7%, its best August in 34 years. It has also now recorded a streak of five consecutive monthly gains, something that last happened in early 2018. The index finished August just fractionally below the month's new record high. Much of the 56% rally from its March lows have been driven by the FAAMNG stocks, although last week even the index ex-FAAMNG entered positive territory for the year.
Stocks remain supported by Federal Reserve liquidity. Research shows that entering the market all at once has historically offered the best outcomes even at record highs, where subsequent 12-month returns have averaged 12% since 1960.
But we do understand that investors may be wary of committing capital to markets given the uncertainty surrounding COVID-19 and valuations becoming more expensive. Given the drawbacks of staying on the sidelines, we recommend three defensive approaches to entering the market:
Averaging in for risk assets. For investors looking to protect against the risk of bad timing, we believe an optimal strategy is dollar-cost averaging their planned allocation to riskier assets. We recommend establishing a set schedule—generally within 12 months or less—to reduce the cost of missing out on gains. In addition, we recommend accelerating each phase-in tranche if there is a market dip of at least 5% or 10%.
Consider a put-writing strategy. For investors who can implement options, put writing involves selling others a put option, i.e., the right to sell the option buyer a security at an agreed-upon price. In doing so, the put-writer receives a premium, which during times of volatility can be relatively high. If the stock price falls below the agreed-upon price, the seller in addition to the premium takes delivery of the stock, which is a particularly attractive strategy if they were willing to increase equity exposure anyway.
Use structured investments. As an alternative to directly purchasing options strategies or other derivatives, some investors may be willing to fully commit their cash up front in exchange for a structured investment that provides asymmetric exposure to the market—for example, levered upside participation, a degree of capital protection, or a fixed coupon payment until maturity.
